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LSAT Ninja
December LSAT Predictions
Eighteen days and counting to the December LSAT.
So I thought it was time for me to put my neck on the line again. I have developed a dangerous habit of making predictions about upcoming LSATs. Kinda like Miss Cleo, LSAT-style (minus the fake Jamaican accent and fraud allegations).
Prior to the September test, I made certain predictions about the curve. My predictions were based on a number of factors that I called a “perfect storm” that would result in a relatively easy curve. And it turns out that I was right.
Well, there was some big news that came out yesterday. There were more LSATs administered in September than ever before. And these increased numbers are likely to continue for the December LSAT. Last year, 43,646 people got to enjoy four hours of logical sparring in December. This year, the number will probably be around 51,000.
Basically, I believe that the same factors that affected the last two exams (bad economy, new rules relating to postponing) are still going to be in play on December 5th.
So here we go. My thoughts on the upcoming December LSAT:
1. The curve will be rather forgiving.
A while back, I actually crunched the numbers to see if there was an “easy” time to take the LSAT. Turns out that, over the years, there is not. However, if you look at the graph a little more closely, the December test is a little bit more lenient in the 155 – 165 range.
170: 11 questions wrong
165: 18 questions wrong
160: 26 questions wrong
155: 35 questions wrong
2. Comparative Reading will be difficult.
The comparative reading passage on the September test was easier than a game of Scrabble against Mike Tyson. It was based on the idea that people build expectations while music is playing and suddenly stopping or interrupting the music will throw people off to some extent. Being a white man and thus having experienced the embarrassment of continuing my dance moves after a break in the music, this one was really in my wheelhouse.
But the good old LSAC does not like it when people think things are easy. So my best guess is that they are going to bounce back with a lengthy and difficult comparative reading passage.
3. Logic Games will feature a complicated Ordering game.
One more thing about the LSAT: they stick with what works. And by works, I mean gives students nightmares for weeks following the exam. For the last couple years, basic Ordering games have been featuring a challenging curveball in the form on tricky rules.
Luckily you can watch the lovely Mr. Elzie teach you how to deal with one of these buggers.
Best of luck with your studies over the next few weeks. If you have any other questions about the upcoming test, feel free to post.
Photo by: garryknight http://www.flickr.com/photos/garryknight/ CC Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic
I know you predicted that the curve is going to be more forgiving. Do you have a number wrong you think you can miss for a 170, etc.?
Sorry for the ambiguity. I meant those figures to be the predictions for the December test.
170: -11
165: -18
160: -26
155: -35
1) The comparative passage in the September 2009 LSAT was definitely NOT easy (see white noise v. movie plot question). I normally get -0 or -2 and I got -8 on the test. Absolutely more difficult than usual.
2) The curve will likely be -10 or -11.
Logic games should be fine. Scared about the RC. I hope you’re wrong…
I’m taking the test abroad so these predictions don’t apply to me, right? The test will be different because it is administered on December 7th and I am assuming I will be on a curve with other abroad test takers. Am I wrong? If so, does that mean that the curve will be more forgiving (less students have the opportunity to take a prep course abroad, etc.)?
Josh, I’d have to disagree. Although I didn’t think they were as easy as Matt does, either. I thought they were all strangely average. None of them were monsters (like June’s Cather passage- now there was a killer comp reading), but I also didn’t think any of them were insanely easy (like the FCC one, also from June).
The September RC was pretty hard.
The comparative passage, however, was not…
Scared. I have been getting consistent 140′s on my practices and the real deal is one week away. I am continuing to struggle with the games. Any words of wisdom to improve my score to the 150′s before the 12/5 test? Yes, I will be happy with any 150+ score
Jon, your test will be different and the curve will be different. It is hard to predict what effect that has on the test or scores since LSAC never releases those tests or any info on those tests. But I don’t think your theory about less preparation is crazy.
Good luck-
Thanks for the post. In which LSAT tests are complicated ordering games found?
Daniel,
When I say the complicated Ordering games, I am referring to Ordering games in which there are conditional rules or ‘but not both’ rules. Those started popping up in December 2006 and most tests since them have one.
Any thoughts on whether this pattern should hold for February as well?
I took the december LSAT today (Also took September 2009) and 1) The curve will be at minimum a -11, my personal prediction would be -12/13, 2) You were dead on about the comparative reading passage, the whole RC section was just insane, i usally miss 2 maybe 3 but today i proably missed 4 to 5, 3) The logic games were insanely easy for those who studied, for those who didn’t i can see how they could be troubling.
yea, you were right.
Does anyone have insight to Feb test difficulty?
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